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Dylan Samberg’s next contract will be a big one — and deservedly so

Advanced metrics tell the story loud and clear. Samberg ranked among the Jets’ leaders in defensive-zone starts, shot suppression, and expected goals against per 60 minutes at even strength. In simpler terms: when Samberg was on the ice, the puck didn’t go in the Jets’ net.

Winnipeg Jets

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HERMANTOWN — Dylan Samberg isn’t just the next man up in Winnipeg’s summer of contract negotiations — he’s the man they can’t afford to miss on.

The 26-year-old defenseman, who sharpened his game in Hermantown and then under Scott Sandelin at UMD, has blossomed into one of the NHL’s most reliable shutdown blueliners. And now, with an arbitration hearing looming on July 30, the Jets are working the phones to hammer out a long-term deal — one that could carry Samberg well into the heart of his prime.

This isn’t about flash. Samberg’s not a power-play quarterback or a breakout-star darling. He’s a throwback, a defensive-zone security blanket who made his name by eating hard minutes and making life miserable for top lines.

Last season, he played in 60 regular-season games for the Jets, putting up a modest 6 goals and 20 points while logging just over 21 minutes per night. But his value goes far beyond the scoresheet. Samberg was regularly deployed against opponents’ top six, started most of his shifts in the defensive zone, and helped anchor one of the league’s stingiest penalty-kill units.

Advanced metrics tell the story loud and clear. Samberg ranked among the Jets’ leaders in defensive-zone starts, shot suppression, and expected goals against per 60 minutes at even strength. In simpler terms: when Samberg was on the ice, the puck didn’t go in the Jets’ net. He’s a plus-possession defender with a calm stick, long reach, and the kind of positional awareness that coaches dream about.

His contract status now becomes the next domino after Winnipeg re-signed forward Gabe Vilardi over the weekend, avoiding arbitration in that case. Samberg’s hearing is still on the docket, but there’s a growing belief that the two sides will strike a deal before it ever gets that far.

With the cap expected to rise and the cost of defense creeping higher, it’s reasonable to expect Samberg’s number to come in closer to $4.3 to $4.5 million annually on a long-term deal. A five- or six-year term would carry Samberg through age 31, giving him long-term security and the Jets some much-needed cost predictability on the left side.

Neal Pionk, Samberg’s teammate and fellow former Bulldog, signed a six-year, $42 million extension earlier this spring — a hefty $7 million per season that starts next year. Pionk plays the right side, logs big offensive-zone minutes, and chips in more offensively. But Samberg’s role — and his price tag — is just as important to Winnipeg’s structure. They need both styles to win.

What’s clear is that Winnipeg doesn’t want this going to arbitration. It’s not their style, and it rarely leads to good vibes long term. Samberg’s value is well-known internally. He’s become one of the Jets' go-to guys late in games, especially when protecting leads. And in a conference where teams are stacked with high-end forwards, having a homegrown, low-maintenance, top-four shutdown defender locked up is an organizational asset.

For Samberg, this is the moment. He played out his entry-level contract with quiet excellence, never demanded headlines, and never took shortcuts. He became a foundational piece without ever calling himself one. And now, the payday is coming — not just for what he’s done, but for what he’ll be asked to do for the next half-decade.

For us back home, there’s nothing but pride. A Hermantown kid. A Bulldogs standout. And now, one of the most reliable defensive defensemen in the National Hockey League. You could see it coming. We all could.

Winnipeg knows what they have. And they’ll pay for it.

Probably before July 30. And probably with a check that reflects the rock-solid, no-frills, blue-line anchor Samberg has become.

The kid’s earned every dollar.

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