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THE NUMBERS SAY UMD STILL has a shot at home ice in the NCHC playoffs. The schedule says they’ll have to earn it the hard way. And the league, as usual, says nobody is getting anything for free.
Minnesota Duluth is sitting fourth in the conference with 25 points, which is exactly where you want to be and exactly where you don’t want to be depending on how you look at it. Fourth gets you home ice. Fifth gets you a bus trip or plane ride. The Bulldogs have eight league games left to decide which one they are.
This is not complicated. It’s just difficult.
The Bulldogs have played .500 hockey in the league so far, which tells you everything. Good enough to stay in the picture. Not good enough to feel safe. They’ve been competitive most nights, leaky on others, and just inconsistent enough to make the math uncomfortable.
Now comes the part of the schedule that tells the truth.
It starts this weekend at Denver, where the Bulldogs will play two games against a team sitting five points ahead of them. The Pioneers dropped points this season, and they’re not invincible. But they are at home, and Minnesota Duluth has not made a habit of stealing road series.
A split keeps Duluth alive. Anything better than that changes the conversation. A sweep against them, and you can start looking at airline schedules instead of playoff brackets.
Next comes North Dakota at Amsoil Arena. The Fighting Hawks are first in the league. Duluth doesn’t need to beat them twice. But it cannot afford to disappear for a weekend and pretend it didn’t matter.
In this league, it always matters.
After that, the Bulldogs get what every contender needs and what every pretender wastes — games against the bottom half. A road series at Miami, followed by a home set against Colorado College.
Those are the weekends that separate the teams that talk about home ice from the teams that actually get it.
You don’t split those series and call it progress. You take points. You take five. You take six. You do your job and move on. Anything less is asking St. Cloud to rejoin the discussion.
The Bulldogs’ advantage is that they’re already fourth. No climbing required yet. Just holding ground. But holding ground in the NCHC is harder than chasing it, because the margin for error shrinks fast.
UMD doesn't need help. It needs execution. The Bulldogs need to win a road game. They need to avoid overtime losses that feel harmless on a Friday night and show up like a bill due in March.
Home ice is there for the taking. It just isn’t going to come politely. The Bulldogs will either take points from Denver, survive North Dakota, and handle their business against Miami and Colorado College — or they’ll do what a lot of decent teams in this league do every year.
They’ll finish fifth, look back at a missed weekend or two, and tell themselves they were close.
Close does not get you home ice. Not here. Not ever.
2025-26 NCHC Standings — Conference Only
- North Dakota — 38 points (12-4-0 in conference, 16 GP)
- Denver — 30 points (10-6-0, 16 GP)
- Western Michigan — 28 points (10-4-0, 14 GP)
- Minnesota Duluth — 25 points (8-8-0, 16 GP)
- St. Cloud State — 20 points (6-10-0, 16 GP)
- Arizona State — 17 points (5-8-1, 14 GP)
- Miami — 16 points (5-7-2, 14 GP)
- Colorado College — 15 points (4-7-3, 14 GP)
- Omaha — 15 points (5-11-0, 16 GP)
🔹 How the point system works: Regulation wins are worth 3 points, overtime/shootout wins 2, and overtime/shootout losses 1.
