EAGAN, Minn. — The Minnesota Vikings will report to training camp with enough talent to return to the playoffs, enough uncertainty to miss them again and one unavoidable decision that will determine which direction their 2026 season takes. Minnesota must decide whether Kyler Murray, the former No. 1 overall draft choice and two-time Pro Bowl selection, or J.J. McCarthy, the young quarterback the Vikings once viewed as their long-term answer, can provide the stability that was missing throughout a disappointing 2025 season.
Rookies are scheduled to report Sunday, July 26, with veterans arriving Tuesday, July 28, at the TCO Performance Center. The first practice open to fans is scheduled for Aug. 1, followed by 12 additional open sessions, including a night practice Aug. 9 and joint practices with the Baltimore Ravens on Aug. 19-20. Minnesota will play preseason games Aug. 15 at the New York Giants, Aug. 22 at home against Baltimore and Aug. 28 at Denver.
Minnesota finished 9-8 last season and missed the playoffs despite winning its final five games. The Vikings scored 344 points, allowed 333 and went 4-2 in the NFC North, but a quarterback rotation involving McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer prevented coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense from developing any sustained rhythm.
McCarthy went 6-4 as a starter but produced the lowest passer rating among 33 qualifying quarterbacks while missing additional time because of injuries. He threw 11 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions, repeatedly placing an otherwise competitive team in difficult situations. Wentz went 2-3 before undergoing shoulder surgery, while Brosmer split his two starts. Minnesota’s quarterbacks combined to throw 21 interceptions, leaving the defense constantly trying to overcome short fields, lost possessions and an offense incapable of consistently finishing drives.
Murray was signed to a one-year contract after seven seasons with Arizona. His best football has been considerably better than anything the Vikings received from the position last season, but his recent history carries significant risk. Murray has passed for more than 20,000 career yards, can create explosive plays with his arm and legs and should fit well in an offense built around movement, play-action passing and getting the ball quickly to elite receivers.
The concern is whether Murray can remain healthy and disciplined within O’Connell’s timing-based offense. He has missed 21 games over the past three seasons, has completed a full season only once in the past five years and appeared in only five games in 2025 before a foot injury ended his season. He can extend plays and rescue an offense when protection breaks down, but he also has a tendency to freelance, hold the ball and abandon the structure of the play.
O’Connell has maintained that Murray and McCarthy will compete for the starting job, with both receiving first-team work during organized team activities and minicamp. But Murray should be considered the favorite when training camp begins. The Vikings did not sign him simply to become a highly paid mentor, and his experience gives Minnesota its best chance to win immediately.
McCarthy’s path to the job is difficult but not closed. He must demonstrate improved accuracy, faster decision-making and better ball security. He also must prove that he can remain available after losing his entire 2024 rookie season to a knee injury and missing time again in 2025. If McCarthy legitimately outplays Murray and wins the job, the Vikings should be encouraged about their long-term future. If neither quarterback separates himself, Minnesota will face the same instability that undermined last season.
“The goal going into this offseason was to elevate the quarterback position,” O’Connell said earlier this month. The Vikings have done that by adding Murray and retaining Wentz, but the competition must produce a clear starter rather than another season-long rotation.
Justin Jefferson remains Minnesota’s best player and one of the NFL’s premier receivers. Even during a poor offensive season, Jefferson caught 84 passes for 1,048 yards, extending his streak of 1,000-yard seasons to six. His two touchdown receptions, however, were a career low, and Minnesota quarterbacks had a 57.9 passer rating when targeting him. Those numbers say far more about the quarterback play than they do about Jefferson.
Jefferson should be the greatest beneficiary if Murray wins the job and stays healthy. He remains an exceptional route runner capable of controlling coverage, and Murray has demonstrated throughout his career that he will repeatedly target his best receiver. Jefferson does not need to be repaired. He needs a quarterback capable of delivering the ball accurately and on time.
Jordan Addison gives Minnesota another dangerous downfield weapon, while the addition of Jauan Jennings could make this the deepest receiving group of O’Connell’s tenure. Jennings caught 55 passes for 643 yards and nine touchdowns with San Francisco last season and brings size, contested-catch ability and physical blocking to the slot. T.J. Hockenson remains an established receiving tight end, giving the starting quarterback four targets who can win at different levels of the field.
Minnesota also returns tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, the two most reliable players on an offensive line that used 26 combinations last season because of injuries. Donovan Jackson and Will Fries return at guard, while Blake Brandel has shifted to center following Ryan Kelly’s retirement. If the starting five remains healthy, the line should be substantially better than it was in 2025. If Darrisaw or O’Neill misses extended time, however, the protection problems could quickly return.
The running game has useful depth rather than one dominant back. Jordan Mason led Minnesota with 758 rushing yards and six touchdowns last season, while Aaron Jones rushed for 548 yards in 12 games. Jones remains an effective receiver and pass protector, but at 31, he is unlikely to carry the offense. Mason should receive a larger share of the early-down workload, with Jones used in passing situations and rookie Demond Claiborne supplying speed. Minnesota averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season, its best mark during O’Connell’s four years as coach, and the Vikings have emphasized building a more dependable running game throughout the offseason.
Defensively, Brian Flores again gives Minnesota a major coaching advantage. His pressure packages, disguised coverages and willingness to move players throughout the formation make the Vikings difficult to prepare for. Blake Cashman anchors the defense at inside linebacker, while Josh Metellus remains one of the league’s most versatile defensive backs. Byron Murphy Jr. and Isaiah Rodgers provide experience at cornerback, and Andrew Van Ginkel continues to be a disruptive outside linebacker.
The Vikings, however, need a breakthrough season from Dallas Turner. The 2024 first-round pick finished with six sacks last season and now moves into a larger role following the trade of Jonathan Greenard to Philadelphia. Behind Van Ginkel and Turner, Minnesota has almost no proven edge-rushing production. An injury to either starter would leave Flores relying heavily on young, untested players.
The defensive line underwent an even greater transformation. Minnesota released Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave and selected 6-foot-6, 327-pound Florida defensive tackle Caleb Banks with the 18th overall pick. The Vikings also drafted Iowa State defensive tackle Domonique Orange in the third round. Banks has the size and quickness to become an immediate interior disruptor, but he missed spring practices while recovering from surgery on his left foot. He is expected to be available for camp, although his health and readiness will be among the most important early developments.
Safety is another uncertainty. Harrison Smith was released for salary-cap purposes in March and has not announced whether he will retire or return for another season. Minnesota has left the door open, but Theo Jackson, Jay Ward and rookie Jakobe Thomas are the leading candidates to play alongside Metellus. Flores’ defense places unusual demands on its safeties, and replacing Smith’s instincts, versatility and leadership will not be as simple as placing another player at his position.
Special teams should be a strength. Will Reichard made 30 of 32 field-goal attempts last season, including 11 from at least 50 yards, and Andrew DePaola remains one of the league’s top long snappers. Veteran Johnny Hekker and rookie Brett Thorson will compete for the punting job.
The schedule offers Minnesota an opportunity to begin well before becoming substantially more difficult in November. The following prediction assumes Murray wins the starting job, remains healthy for most of the season and receives adequate protection.
Minnesota opens Sept. 13 against Green Bay at U.S. Bank Stadium, where the Packers could be without injured pass rusher Micah Parsons. Jefferson and Minnesota’s receiving depth should provide enough offense for a 24-20 Vikings victory. The following week at Chicago will be more difficult. Caleb Williams and the defending NFC North champions should survive a close divisional game at Soldier Field, 23-20, before Tampa Bay takes advantage of Minnesota playing its second consecutive road game and wins 27-23, leaving the Vikings 1-2.
Minnesota should recover at home against Miami, with Flores pressuring the Dolphins’ quarterback and Jefferson producing his first major home performance of the season in a 28-20 victory. The Vikings then travel to New Orleans, where their defense should control a rebuilding Saints offense in a 24-17 win. Minnesota would enter its Week 6 bye at 3-2, giving O’Connell additional time to refine the offense before the most demanding portion of the schedule.
The Vikings should improve to 4-2 by defeating Indianapolis 27-16 at U.S. Bank Stadium, controlling the line of scrimmage and forcing the Colts to play from behind. That victory begins a punishing five-game stretch that could determine Minnesota’s season. Detroit’s speed and running back Jahmyr Gibbs should challenge the Vikings’ rebuilt defensive front in a 31-24 Lions victory at Ford Field. Buffalo and Josh Allen should follow with a 30-23 win in Minneapolis, exposing Minnesota’s limited depth at edge rusher and dropping the Vikings to 4-4.
Green Bay should earn a split in the season series with a 27-24 victory at Lambeau Field. The Vikings then travel to Mexico City to face San Francisco at Estadio Banorte in a game officially designated as a 49ers home date. San Francisco’s physical defense, experience and ability to run the ball should produce a 30-20 victory, completing a four-game Minnesota losing streak and leaving the Vikings 4-6.
The schedule becomes more manageable after Mexico City. Minnesota should reestablish its running game and defeat Atlanta 28-20, then use Flores’ pressure packages to force multiple turnovers in a 24-16 home victory over Carolina. Those wins would return the Vikings to .500 before a difficult Thursday night game at New England. Drake Maye and an improved Patriots roster should take advantage of the short week and defeat Minnesota 27-21, dropping the Vikings to 6-7 with four games remaining.
Minnesota’s season should turn during the final month. The Vikings’ receivers can exploit Detroit’s unsettled secondary in a 27-24 home victory, with Reichard deciding the game late. Minnesota should follow by defeating Washington 26-20, using its defensive pressure to prevent the Commanders from sustaining enough drives. A favorable Week 17 matchup at the New York Jets should produce a 24-13 Vikings victory, moving Minnesota to 9-7 and placing its playoff hopes on the regular-season finale.
With a wild-card berth at stake, Murray and Jefferson should lead Minnesota past Chicago 27-23 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The victory would complete a four-game winning streak and give the Vikings a 10-7 final record, likely good enough for second or third place in the NFC North and a wild-card playoff berth.
Minnesota’s ceiling is 11 or 12 victories if Murray stays healthy, the offensive line holds together and Banks immediately strengthens the defensive front. Its floor is seven victories if the quarterback competition remains unsettled or injuries again strike several of the team’s most important players.
The Vikings are too talented at receiver, too well coached and too versatile defensively to dismiss. They are also too uncertain at quarterback, center, safety and defensive-line depth to declare a championship contender. The most reasonable prediction is 10-7 and a return to the playoffs, but everything begins with the decision O’Connell can no longer avoid: Who will lead the offense when Green Bay arrives at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sept. 13?
