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MINNEAPOLIS — Minnesota proved almost everything it reasonably could against Eastern Illinois. Now the Gophers get to prove whether any of it matters.
Mississippi State visits Huntington Bank Stadium for a 2:30 p.m. kickoff in a fascinating early-season Big Ten-SEC matchup between 1-0 teams. Minnesota crushed Eastern Illinois 59-7 in its opener. Mississippi State was even more explosive, producing a school-record 762 yards in a 62-13 demolition of Louisiana-Monroe.
This is where P.J. Fleck's 10th Minnesota team begins to come into focus.
Eastern Illinois simply wasn't equipped to challenge the Gophers physically. Mississippi State is. The Bulldogs will bring SEC size, speed and an offense capable of turning one missed assignment into seven points.
That makes today's game an important early referendum on Minnesota. The Gophers don't need to dominate. They need to win.
Minnesota's opener provided plenty worth carrying forward. Quarterback Drake Lindsey was sharp and efficient, completing 19 of 24 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown without an interception. He has now attempted 177 consecutive passes without being picked off, the second-longest streak in program history.
That number matters more today than it did against Eastern Illinois.
Mississippi State can score quickly enough that Minnesota cannot give it short fields. Lindsey doesn't have to throw for 350 yards. He does have to manage the game, convert third downs and avoid the catastrophic turnover that turns a close game into one Minnesota has to chase.
The Gophers also need Darius Taylor to establish himself early.
Taylor rushed 14 times for 56 yards against Eastern Illinois, hardly an overwhelming total, but scored three touchdowns. Minnesota rushed for only 147 yards as a team, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Those numbers were hidden beneath the final score and Minnesota's 348 passing yards.
They won't be as easy to hide today.
Minnesota's offensive identity under Fleck has traditionally been strongest when its running game controls down-and-distance, shortens the game and keeps an opposing offense on the sideline. If the Gophers are consistently facing second-and-9 and third-and-7 against Mississippi State, they will be playing the Bulldogs' game instead of their own.
And Mississippi State has plenty of offense.
Quarterback Kamario Taylor was outstanding in the opener, completing 22 of 34 passes for 354 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He also rushed for 59 yards and another touchdown. Freshman J.J. Hill ran seven times for 118 yards and two scores, while Anthony Evans III caught seven passes for 118 yards and a touchdown.
Those aren't empty opening-night numbers.
Mississippi State scored on each of its first eight possessions against ULM and accumulated 459 yards before halftime. The Bulldogs finished with 417 passing yards, 345 rushing yards and 35 first downs while averaging 9.6 yards per offensive play.
That's the central matchup this afternoon.
Can Minnesota's defense make Taylor uncomfortable?
The Gophers held Eastern Illinois to 110 total yards, including only 51 rushing, and produced nine tackles for loss. That was complete domination. But Minnesota won't see anything resembling the same speed today, especially at quarterback and on the perimeter.
Containing Taylor may be more important than sacking him.
Let him escape the pocket repeatedly and Mississippi State can create explosive plays after Minnesota's coverage begins breaking down. Keep him confined, make him work through progressions and force the Bulldogs into eight-, 10- and 12-play drives, and the probability of a penalty, negative play or turnover increases.
Minnesota also owns a potential game-changing weapon that nobody expected entering the season.
Javon Tracy.
Tracy entered the Eastern Illinois game without a career punt return. He left it as the Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week after returning punts 87 and 69 yards for touchdowns. He finished with a school-record 167 punt-return yards and added five catches for 98 yards, giving him 265 all-purpose yards.
Mississippi State will obviously be prepared for him.
That doesn't make Tracy less important.
His emergence stretches the field offensively and changes field position even if Mississippi State simply decides not to punt directly to him. Players capable of changing games without taking an offensive snap are enormously valuable in games projected to be tight.
And this should be tight.
There is also some legitimate historical significance to the afternoon. Minnesota and Mississippi State have never played. The Gophers haven't hosted an SEC opponent since Vanderbilt visited Minneapolis in 1959, and their previous five games against SEC teams were bowl games. Minnesota has won three of its last four against SEC opponents, including its 31-24 victory over Auburn in the 2020 Outback Bowl.
Today's game is more important for what comes next.
Minnesota hosts Akron next Saturday before opening Big Ten play Sept. 26 at Washington. Michigan follows Oct. 3 at Huntington Bank Stadium.
A victory today sends Minnesota into the Akron game with a likely 3-0 start available and gives the Gophers something much more meaningful than another win in the standings: proof that they can defeat a talented Power Four opponent before conference play begins.
A loss doesn't wreck the season. But it would raise familiar questions about whether Minnesota can turn competence into something more. That's why this afternoon matters.
The opener showed that Lindsey can distribute the football. It showed that Tracy can provide explosiveness. It showed that Minnesota's defense can overwhelm an inferior opponent. It showed that the Gophers appear deep, experienced and fundamentally sound.
Mississippi State will determine whether those qualities hold up when the opponent can punch back. Minnesota should have enough.
Taylor needs to get 20-plus meaningful touches. Lindsey needs another clean afternoon. Minnesota's defensive front has to keep Taylor from turning broken plays into explosives, and Tracy needs to continue influencing field position even if Mississippi State refuses to kick to him.
Do those things and Huntington Bank Stadium should be celebrating sometime shortly after 6 p.m.
My prediction: Minnesota 31, Mississippi State 27.
