The morning after an election is a useful time to reread what you wrote before it. Especially when you promised readers they could hold you to it.
On Saturday, I published 19 individual predictions covering Minnesota’s statewide offices, all eight congressional districts and six Duluth-area contests. By Wednesday morning, 18 of my choices had won their races, according to reported results. The remaining pick, Republican U.S. Rep. Brad Finstad, trailed Democrat Jake Johnson in a contest still too close to call. That is a strong scorecard, with an unfinished line that deserves attention rather than an asterisk buried at the bottom.
My three headline predictions held: Amy Klobuchar won the governor’s race, Peggy Flanagan won the open U.S. Senate seat and Pete Stauber won another term in Congress. The broader judgment behind those choices — that Minnesota could favor Democrats statewide while returning Republicans from several congressional districts — also survived election night.
Klobuchar was my strongest statewide pick, and the unofficial returns supported that confidence. She received 55.47% to Republican Lisa Demuth’s 42.63%. Flanagan, whom I approached more cautiously, defeated Republican Michele Tafoya, 53.71% to 43.55%. My caution about that Senate race proved more conservative than the result required, but choosing a winner and anticipating the size of a victory are different assignments.
The other statewide selections followed: Attorney General Keith Ellison, Secretary of State Steve Simon and state auditor candidate Zack Filipovich. Filipovich was my weakest statewide lean; he finished with 52.94% against Scott Jensen’s 44.17%. I got the direction right while understating how comfortable that particular victory would become. All five statewide picks landed in the correct column.
Closer to home, the more revealing calls were outside Duluth’s most reliably Democratic districts. I picked Grant Hauschild to survive his Senate District 3 rematch against Andrea Zupancich and Aaron Schweiger to defeat Republican incumbent Natalie Zeleznikar in House District 3B. Both were cautious selections, and both proved correct.
Hauschild received 24,873 votes to Zupancich’s 20,866, according to results reported by Northern News Now. That was a 4,007-vote advantage in a race I had described as a lean. Schweiger received 12,262 votes to Zeleznikar’s 10,851, a margin of 1,411. Those were meaningful wins in the competitive territory where I had wondered whether the statewide Democratic advantage would carry into individual legislative contests.
My Duluth legislative picks — Jen McEwen in Senate District 8, Peter Johnson in House District 8A and Liish Kozlowski in House District 8B — also won. Those selections rested heavily on the city’s established voting patterns, and honesty requires acknowledging that they demanded less forecasting nerve than Schweiger’s challenge to an incumbent. A correct pick counts, but the difficulty of the assignment matters when assessing the work.
In the St. Louis County Board’s District 1 race, I gave Kris Eilers the edge over Annie Harala because Eilers had led the August primary. November voters sustained that advantage: Eilers received 5,788 votes to Harala’s 4,971, with all precincts reporting. The primary offered a useful clue, although it never guaranteed that a larger electorate would make the same choice.
Congress is where the unfinished business sits. My selections of Matt Little, Kelly Morrison, Betty McCollum, Ilhan Omar, Tom Emmer, Michelle Fischbach and Stauber all prevailed. Finstad was the exception to an otherwise completed congressional scorecard, and his race threatens my separate prediction that Minnesota would again send four Democrats and four Republicans to the House.
The secretary of state’s Wednesday morning returns showed Johnson with 163,057 votes and Finstad with 162,733 — a 324-vote difference. FOX 9 continued to describe the contest as too close to call. If Johnson’s advantage holds, my Finstad pick will be wrong and Minnesota’s delegation will divide 5-3 in favor of Democrats. Until the outcome is settled, I cannot claim the four-four forecast was correct.
I had identified Finstad as the Republican congressional candidate I would watch most closely. That qualification accurately conveyed uncertainty, but it does not provide insurance against a mistaken selection. I chose him, and if he loses, that belongs on my record.
There is another distinction worth preserving. These were predictions, not endorsements, and evaluating them afterward should remain an exercise in accountability. Picking a winning candidate does not mean approving every position that candidate holds, just as picking a losing candidate does not entitle a columnist to question the voters.
My Saturday column ended by saying voters would supply the evidence that mattered most. They have now supplied enough to support 18 of my 19 individual choices, with the remaining race unresolved and my candidate behind. I am pleased with that record, and I will leave the last line open until the evidence closes it.
