Minnesota looks headed toward another election that will frustrate anyone trying to describe this state with a single political label.
My forecast for Tuesday: Amy Klobuchar wins the governor’s office, Peggy Flanagan wins a U.S. Senate seat and Pete Stauber returns to Congress. Democrats have the better statewide outlook, but that does not mean Republicans are about to disappear from the Minnesota map.
These are predictions, not endorsements, and they carry different levels of confidence. Statewide polling provides considerably more evidence than we have in some local contests. Where the evidence is thinner, readers deserve to know it. Nobody should confuse my judgment with a vote count.
Start with governor, where Klobuchar is my strongest statewide pick over Republican Lisa Demuth. The late polling points consistently in her direction: RealClearPolling’s compilation lists an Oct. 24-28 KSTP/SurveyUSA survey with Klobuchar ahead 51% to 39%, following other October surveys that also put her in front. Polls can miss, but predicting a Demuth victory would require a convincing explanation for why multiple surveys are overlooking the same Republican strength. I do not see enough evidence to make that argument.
For U.S. Senate, I expect Flanagan to defeat Republican Michele Tafoya. This is a less comfortable call than governor because several October polls showed a substantially closer race. Still, the direction across the polling favors Flanagan. Tafoya has a path to an upset, but a forecast should follow the weight of the available evidence, and that evidence puts Flanagan ahead.
I also give Attorney General Keith Ellison and Secretary of State Steve Simon the advantage in their reelection campaigns. State Navigate’s Oct. 26-28 survey put Ellison ahead of Republican Ron Schutz, 52% to 44%, while October polling has favored Simon over Republican Tad Jude. My expectation is that both survive, although neither gets to cash in a polling lead before the ballots are counted.
State auditor is a more cautious Democratic pick: Zack Filipovich over Republican Scott Jensen. An October KSTP/SurveyUSA poll described by MPR News showed Filipovich ahead by just 1 percentage point, with 14% undecided. That is uncertainty, not a commanding advantage. My lean toward Filipovich rests partly on the broader Democratic statewide outlook, and readers should treat it as a weaker prediction than my call for Klobuchar.
In northeastern Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, I expect Stauber to defeat DFL challenger Trina Swanson. The Cook Political Report rates the district Solid Republican and notes that Donald Trump carried it by 14 points in 2024. That does not make Swanson’s campaign irrelevant. It does mean that a prediction of her victory needs more than evidence that Democrats are doing well elsewhere in Minnesota. Duluth’s political preferences cannot stand in for an entire congressional district.
My statewide congressional forecast is another four-four split. Along with Stauber, I pick Republicans Brad Finstad in the 1st District, Tom Emmer in the 6th and Michelle Fischbach in the 7th. On the DFL side, I pick Matt Little in the 2nd, Kelly Morrison in the 3rd, Betty McCollum in the 4th and Ilhan Omar in the 5th. Those are my calls across the eight races, not a claim that all eight contests are equally settled.
Finstad is the Republican on that list I would watch most closely. Decision Desk HQ’s late-October forecast favored him, but its polling compilation included a tie and surveys putting challenger Jake Johnson slightly ahead. I am giving Finstad the edge, with considerably less confidence than the word “incumbent” sometimes encourages. In the 2nd District, both Cook’s assessment and Decision Desk’s forecast favor Little over Republican Eric Pratt.
Closer to home, my picks are Jen McEwen over Darrick Law in Senate District 8, Peter Johnson over Allan Kehr II in House District 8A and Liish Kozlowski over Shawn Savela in House District 8B. These are judgments grounded principally in Duluth’s established voting patterns rather than fresh district polling. Johnson and Kozlowski won comfortably in 2024, and I see no sufficient basis to predict that those House districts will reverse direction Tuesday.
The Senate District 3 rematch between DFL incumbent Grant Hauschild and Republican Andrea Zupancich deserves more caution. I lean toward Hauschild, giving weight to incumbency and his substantial advantage in money raised directly by the campaigns. But KAXE’s reporting showed Republican-aligned outside spending more than offsetting that fundraising advantage. This is a contested race with serious resources behind the challenger, and my Hauschild pick should be read as a lean.
In House District 3B, my narrow pick is DFL challenger Aaron Schweiger over Republican incumbent Natalie Zeleznikar. Zeleznikar’s close 2024 victory establishes how competitive this district can be; it does not tell us who wins the next election. I am making a modest bet that the statewide Democratic advantage reaches this contest. Without reliable district polling, I would not attach a confident margin to that prediction.
For St. Louis County commissioner in District 1, I give Kris Eilers the edge over Annie Harala. Here there is an actual election result to examine: Eilers received 2,330 votes in the August primary, compared with Harala’s 1,836 and John Socha’s 519. A larger November electorate can produce a different outcome, and Socha’s voters are free to make their own decisions. Nevertheless, Eilers’ primary lead is a more concrete reason for a prediction than campaign visibility or the number of yard signs on a familiar street.
That leaves Minnesota with a result that should surprise nobody familiar with its political geography: Democratic strength statewide and in Duluth, Republican strength across several congressional districts, and competitive legislative races between those poles. My picks are on the record. On Tuesday, voters will supply the evidence that matters most — and afterward, I can be held to the same standard I apply to everyone else.