MINNEAPOLIS — Minnesota will enter the 2026 football season with an established quarterback, a proven running back, one of the Big Ten’s best pass rushers and enough veteran leadership to become a better team than the one that won eight games last year.
The problem for P.J. Fleck is that improvement may not produce a dramatically better record.
The Gophers should be favored in all three nonconference games and appear capable of defeating every Big Ten opponent outside the conference’s championship tier. But a demanding league schedule includes road games at Washington, Indiana, Penn State and Wisconsin, along with home dates against Michigan, Iowa and UCLA. Minnesota avoids Ohio State, Oregon, Southern California and Illinois, but five of its nine conference opponents were placed among the Big Ten’s top eight teams in ESPN’s preseason power index projections.
My prediction is that Minnesota finishes the regular season 8-4 overall and 5-4 in the Big Ten — one regular-season victory better than last year but still planted firmly in the enormous middle of college football’s deepest conference.
That would not be a failure. It would, however, make the 2026 season feel familiar.
Fleck begins his 10th season at Minnesota with a 66-44 record, seven bowl victories and four eight-win seasons in the last five years. His 2025 team finished 8-5 overall and 5-4 in conference play, defeated Wisconsin and New Mexico to close the season and went 7-0 at Huntington Bank Stadium. Minnesota has won eight games in consecutive seasons but has not returned to the national prominence of its 11-2 breakthrough in 2019.
The player most capable of changing that trajectory is redshirt sophomore quarterback Drake Lindsey. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound Lindsey started all 13 games last season and completed 249 of 386 passes for 2,382 yards, 18 touchdowns and only six interceptions. His eight victories were the most by a freshman quarterback in program history, and his 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio demonstrated unusual poise for a first-year starter.
Lindsey must now become more than a careful game manager. Minnesota averaged only about 23 points last season, struggled to consistently protect him and too often reduced its passing attack to short throws that placed enormous pressure on receivers to create yards after the catch. Lindsey has the arm to attack defenses vertically. Fleck and offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh Jr. must give him more opportunities to use it.
Senior running back Darius Taylor remains the other foundational piece of the offense. Taylor rushed for 670 yards and four touchdowns in 10 games last season after producing 986 yards and 10 scores in 2024. He has been productive when healthy, but injuries and inconsistent blocking have prevented him from sustaining the dominance he flashed as a freshman. Taylor also caught 34 passes last season and remains one of the conference’s most complete backs.
Minnesota returns three experienced offensive linemen in Greg Johnson, Ashton Beers and Nathan Roy. Johnson has started 38 games, Beers has started 22 over the last two seasons and Roy gained valuable experience as a redshirt freshman at left tackle. Tennessee transfer Bennett Warren, a former top-100 recruit, is expected to address the troublesome right tackle position.
The receiving corps does not have an established star, but it has useful pieces. Javon Tracy caught 37 passes for 454 yards and a team-leading six touchdowns last season, while Mankato West graduate Jalen Smith had 28 receptions for 419 yards and four touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. Smith has the size and big-play ability to become Lindsey’s primary target. Transfers Noah Jennings, Perry Thompson and Zion Steptoe give Minnesota more options, but replacing leading receiver Le’Meke Brockington and three experienced tight ends will require a successful training camp.
Defense should again keep Minnesota competitive, beginning with senior end Anthony Smith. The 6-6, 285-pound Smith led the Big Ten with 12½ sacks last season and added 17½ tackles for loss. He was named first-team All-Big Ten by the conference’s coaches and enters 2026 as a preseason second-team All-American.
Smith will not rush alone. Karter Menz and Jaxon Howard return after playing significant snaps last season, and California transfer TJ Bush Jr. arrives after recording 11½ tackles for loss and 5½ sacks in 2025. It may be the deepest and most disruptive position group on the roster.
Linebacker Maverick Baranowski is the defense’s traffic controller. He led Minnesota with 103 tackles last season, becoming the program’s first 100-tackle player since Blake Cashman in 2018. Safety Kerry Brown returns after starting every game and making 56 tackles, while John Nestor intercepted six passes to share the Big Ten lead. Athlon Sports placed nine Gophers on its four preseason All-Big Ten teams, led by Smith, Taylor, Johnson, Baranowski and Nestor.
There are legitimate concerns. Minnesota lost its entire primary defensive tackle rotation, and standout safety Koi Perich transferred to Oregon. The Gophers must rebuild the middle of their defensive line with transfers Naquan Crowder, Xion Chapman and Sid Kaba while finding another dependable cornerback. Defensive coordinator Danny Collins’ aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme produced sacks and takeaways last season, but it also left the secondary vulnerable to explosive plays.
The roster is good enough to remain in the upper half of the Big Ten. It is not deep or explosive enough to survive injuries at quarterback, running back, offensive tackle or in the secondary. The difference between nine victories and six may be that narrow.
Howie’s game-by-game forecast
Sept. 3 — Eastern Illinois: Minnesota will be bigger and deeper at every position. Lindsey should be able to push the ball downfield while the Gophers evaluate their new receivers and defensive tackles. Minnesota 38, Eastern Illinois 10.
Sept. 12 — Mississippi State: This is the most important nonconference game and far from an automatic victory. Mississippi State will bring SEC size and a dangerous dual-threat quarterback in Kamario Taylor, but Minnesota’s experience, defensive front and home-field advantage should decide a close game. Minnesota 27, Mississippi State 23.
Sept. 19 — Akron: The Gophers complete a favorable three-game homestand and enter conference play undefeated. Taylor should have his first dominant rushing performance of the season. Minnesota 34, Akron 13.
Sept. 26 — at Washington: Minnesota’s first road game requires a long trip to Seattle against a Washington team projected to contend for a top-six conference finish. The Gophers will struggle to generate enough explosive offense to keep pace. Washington 31, Minnesota 20.
Oct. 3 — Michigan: The Wolverines begin a new era under Kyle Whittingham but still possess superior overall talent. Minnesota will make this physical and uncomfortable, but Michigan’s defensive front eventually controls the line of scrimmage. Michigan 24, Minnesota 17.
Oct. 10 — at Purdue: This is a conference road game Minnesota must win. Purdue has lost 18 consecutive Big Ten games and remains in the early stages of a major rebuild. Minnesota 27, Purdue 16.
Oct. 24 — Iowa: The Gophers get a week off before the battle for Floyd of Rosedale. Iowa may be stronger on paper, but Minnesota’s pass rush, home field and Lindsey’s experience produce the season’s defining victory. Minnesota 20, Iowa 17.
Oct. 31 — at Indiana: The defending national champions have established a sustainable program under Curt Cignetti and replaced major losses through the transfer portal. Minnesota will compete early but cannot match Indiana’s depth or offensive firepower for four quarters. Indiana 34, Minnesota 17.
Nov. 7 — UCLA: This is another game Minnesota must win at home. The Bruins should be improved under first-year coach Bob Chesney, but the cold November setting, Taylor’s running and Minnesota’s defensive front favor the Gophers. Minnesota 27, UCLA 20.
Nov. 14 — at Penn State: Winning at Beaver Stadium remains one of the Big Ten’s most difficult assignments. New Penn State coach Matt Campbell inherits enough talent to contend immediately, and Minnesota’s offense will have difficulty sustaining drives. Penn State 27, Minnesota 16.
Nov. 21 — Northwestern: The Gophers’ final home game should secure their eighth victory and another winning regular season. Lindsey and Smith will have opportunities for explosive plays against a Northwestern defense lacking Minnesota’s depth. Minnesota 30, Northwestern 17.
Nov. 27 — at Wisconsin: The Badgers will be desperate to reclaim Paul Bunyan’s Axe after losing the rivalry game in 2024 and 2025. Wisconsin’s revamped roster and improved defense make this a tossup, but Minnesota has greater continuity at quarterback and in the coaching staff. Minnesota 23, Wisconsin 20.
The final projection is 8-4 overall, 5-4 in the Big Ten and another respectable bowl invitation. Minnesota will be better than several computer projections suggest, but not quite good enough to break into the conference’s championship class.
For Fleck, Lindsey and a veteran senior class, the season should produce another winning record, another Axe and another bowl game. The larger question — whether Minnesota can again become nationally relevant — will remain unanswered.
