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Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz wants three in a row in Election 2026.
Around here, that’s like saying you’re going back for a third plate of tater-tot hot dish — people will look at you sideways, mutter about gluttony, and then quietly admire your stamina.
Minnesota doesn’t ban you from running again. We usually don’t hand out three terms because, frankly, we get bored.
But Walz is betting the math still works. And unless the GOP finds a quarterback who can complete a pass, he’s probably right.
Let’s size this thing up like a deer camp debate, county by county, starting with the obvious.
Hennepin County
The DFL’s personal ATM. Walz wins here the way the Twins lose in the postseason: by habit. Seventy percent of the vote in 2022, a quarter-million vote margin all by itself. Republicans could run a hockey mom with a Bible in one hand and a tax cut in the other, and they’d still get drilled. Walz’s victory margin lives in Minneapolis.
Ramsey County
The other half of the ATM. St. Paul’s vote is as blue as a frozen January. Add it to Hennepin, and you’re looking at a big lead you can spot the other guy in every outstate county and still cash the check.
Dakota and Washington
These are the suburbs that once flirted with Republicans but now lean like a barstool at closing time. Walz carried them efficiently the last two runs. If he keeps his cushion in the high single digits, it’s lights out early. If they wobble back red, then we’ve got a real game.
Anoka and Scott
These are the suburban ex-wives who never fully come back. Walz usually loses here, but not by much. Keep the margin single digits and he’s fine. Blowout losses here, and suddenly the GOP has oxygen.
Carver, Wright, Sherburne, Isanti, Morrison, Benton
This is where Republicans win 70–30 and beat their chests. Walz doesn’t need to win them, just keep from getting buried alive. If these counties start posting video-game numbers, the map gets nervous.
Olmsted (Rochester)
The Mayo Clinic, lab coats, and a city that doesn’t buy red hats. Walz has won it twice. If he wins it again, it’s basically free points.
St. Louis, Lake, Cook, Carlton
Duluth and the North Shore. Old-school DFL turf, and Walz still posts basketball scores here. St. Louis County alone is worth almost 20 points in his pocket. That’s a cushion you can nap on.
Clay County (Moorhead)
Tiny but symbolic. Walz squeaked by last time. College town, Fargo spillover, enough blue to matter. Republicans can’t afford to give it away again.
Rice, Nicollet, Winona, Blue Earth
The college belt. Dorms, professors, and students who actually vote in off-years. Walz almost always wins these, and they matter more than people think. They’re the duct tape that holds the metro-plus-Duluth coalition together.
Stearns (St. Cloud)
The belligerent cousin at Thanksgiving. He’s red, he’s loud, and he drinks your beer. Walz lost it badly last time. He can again. Just don’t let the margins get cartoonish.
Walz has a simple game plan: win big where the people live, survive where they don’t. Minneapolis and St. Paul hand him a six-figure head start. Dakota and Washington counties have turned into DFL strongholds. Rochester and Duluth aren’t budging. Throw in the college towns, and he’s got a path baked in the pie.
And don’t forget the Republican bench. Weak doesn’t begin to cover it. The party keeps recycling the same candidates who couldn’t close the deal in ’18 or ’22. Nobody new, nobody scary, nobody who can sell the suburbs without losing the base.
Here’s the rub: Walz isn’t popular, he’s tolerated. Approval ratings under 50% aren’t a trophy. They’re a warning. COVID, crime headlines, fraud scandals — those scars don’t fade. Outstate voters still blame him for things that went sideways in 2020 and 2021. The GOP will pound that drum until the sticks break.
And then there’s history. Minnesota doesn’t do three terms. We just don’t. Voters like to rotate the tires after eight years. Walz is asking them to buck habit, and habits die hard.
How He Wins
Same movie, third time. Hennepin and Ramsey hand him a pile of votes. Dakota and Washington give him the security blanket. Duluth and Rochester chip in. College towns add padding. The GOP wins farm country but not big enough to cancel the metro. Walz by 3-6 points, not pretty, not flashy, but enough to keep the Governor’s Residence stocked with lefse.
How He Loses
Two things have to happen together. Republicans find a credible candidate to cut into the suburbs, and Walz’s soft approval keeps bleeding. If Dakota and Washington go coin-flip, Olmsted turns red, and turnout dips in Minneapolis, then suddenly his metro cushion isn’t a pillow anymore.
Walz isn’t an unknown. He’s the incumbent we already know too much about. He wins when the map looks like the last two elections. He loses if Republicans get serious, which is something they haven’t managed in a long time.
So, third term? Possible. Probable, even. But history hates three-peat governors, and voters here get itchy after eight years. He’s trying to do what nobody’s done in modern Minnesota politics.
Right now, the smart money says Walz wins by a field goal. But it’s Minnesota. We’ve seen stranger upsets — Jesse Ventura says hello.
Walz has the math. The Republicans have the grievance. November will tell us which weighs more.
Until then, the rest of us will argue about it over burnt diner coffee, as we always do.
