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Duluth community leaders released a new housing report Tuesday at the Holiday Center — Duluth’s historic downtown living room. Fitting, really. A community can’t brag about its living room if too many families can’t afford one of their own.
The 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis from Maxfield Research laid it out in black and white: Duluth must add 8,713 new housing units by 2035 or watch the shortages worsen.
“Without an aggressive push to expand housing across income levels, Duluth risks leaving families priced out, seniors stuck on waitlists, and employers unable to attract workers.” – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
That’s not a projection. That’s a warning.
“Housing is the issue,” said Shaun Floerke, CEO of Boreal Waters (formerly Duluth Superior Area Community Foundation), a philanthropic foundation based in Downtown Duluth. “If we don’t figure out housing, nothing else ultimately works. Einstein said, ‘We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.’ This must be all hands on deck, collective effort, learning from places that are doing it well, and galvanizing smart sustained investment from both public and private sectors. The best time to plant a tree? 20 years ago. The second best time? Today!”
Start with the basics. Vacancy rates are 1.8 percent for general rentals and 1.1 percent for affordable housing. A healthy market is closer to 5 percent. Instead, Duluth renters are slogging through waitlists longer than a winter night.
On the for-sale side, inventory has collapsed to 1.6 months’ supply, when six months is considered balanced. Translation: if you hope to buy, you’re fighting over scraps.
Home prices reflect the squeeze. The median detached single-family price jumped from $184,000 in 2018 to $292,000 today — a 59 percent increase. New construction? Detached homes average $529,450.
Call it what it is: a housing emergency.
Duluth’s median household income is $66,428, nearly $20,000 below the statewide median. That gap shows up in grocery bills, daycare fees, and most painfully, in housing.
Over 31 percent of households are cost-burdened, spending over 30 percent of their income on housing. For renters, it’s worse: 53 percent are cost-burdened, and many are spending more than half their income to keep a roof overhead.
“For renters, the squeeze is especially severe. Many low-income households now spend more than half their income on housing, leaving little for food, transportation, or health care.” – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
That’s not an academic finding. That’s Duluth today.
"We often talk about attracting new businesses or talent, but unless those people can afford a decent place to live, our efforts will stall," said Matt Baumgartner, President, Duluth Area Chamber of Commerce. "Housing is our silent constraint. On the finance side, let's shift the paradigm: every unit of housing is a lever: it expands taxable base, reduces out-commuting costs, and improves labor flexibility. When vacancy rates approach 1%, we aren’t in a housing market – clearly, we’re in a crisis. That restricts bargaining leverage for renters and signals severe supply constraints."
This isn’t just about today’s families. It’s about tomorrow’s too.
“Younger households are finding limited entry-level ownership opportunities. Only about 52 percent of Duluth households could afford a starter home priced around $180,000, while just 30 percent could afford a $300,000 move-up home.” – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
Translation: kids who grew up here, went to school here, and want to raise families here are being priced out.
At the same time, seniors are staring down a bottleneck. Duluth has 40 facilities with 2,630 units, most at or near capacity. By 2035, the 75-plus population will grow nearly 24 percent.
“The senior population is expected to increase by nearly 24 percent by 2035. Duluth will need 1,437 new senior units by 2030 and nearly 2,500 by 2035.” – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
That’s a wave building just offshore.
The report doesn’t mince words.
“Workforce housing is needed in both the rental and ownership markets, particularly for households earning between 60 percent and 100 percent of area median income.” – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
That means townhomes and twin homes under $300,000. Affordable rentals that working families can realistically pay for. Senior housing that offers independence, assisted living, and memory care.
“Infill and redevelopment will be necessary, as the supply of available lots is insufficient to meet projected demand.” – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
This isn’t about one silver-bullet project. It’s about steady production — year after year — across the board.
"Moving forward, we should treat housing development as infrastructure investment: like roads, we should anticipate and fund it upfront, not retroactively," Baumgartner said. "It's time for our city and county partners to look at 429 infrastructure bonds. Yet, I would say to the skeptical lender or developer: yes, there is risk, but with partnerships (subsidies, pre-leasing commitments, public incentives), we can bridge that risk and deliver housing that supports our broader economy."
Housing is not a side issue. It is the issue.
Employers say they can’t hire because workers can’t find homes. Seniors are stuck in places they can’t maintain because there are no vacancies in senior housing. Families are driving 40 miles each way because they can’t afford to live in the city they work in.
“And with vacancy rates near rock-bottom, renters have little negotiating power as rents continue to rise.” – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
That’s the reality.
Duluth has no real choice here. Build more housing, or watch the city stagnate.
The Maxfield study is the roadmap this city has been asking for. It tells us what to build, when, and for whom. The only question is whether Duluth has the will to follow it.
“The numbers are clear: 8,713 units. Ten years. And a housing market under more strain than at any time in recent memory.” – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
Ten years. 8,713 units. And a downtown living room where Duluth was told, plainly, the stakes of failing to act.
"If we don’t close this housing gap, we risk hollowing out our workforce, weakening consumer demand, and undermining our competitiveness relative to peer regions," said Baumgartner. "Certainly, building 8,713 units over 10 years sounds daunting — but it’s a roadmap. It gives us scale and purpose. Without that, we fly blind."
Housing by the Numbers
- 8,713 new housing units needed by 2035
- 6,325 general-occupancy units (≈1,182 for-sale, ≈5,143 rental)
- 2,428 senior units needed by 2035
- 1.8% rental vacancy rate (healthy market: 5%)
- 1.6 months of for-sale inventory (balanced market: 6 months)
- $292,000 median price of a single-family home in 2025 (up 59% since 2018)
- $66,428 median Duluth household income vs. $86,801 statewide
- 31% of households cost-burdened (53% of renters, 19% of owners) – 2025 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis
