Howie Hanson is Minnesota’s Columnist, writing about power, money, sports and civic life across the state. This column is sponsored by Lyric Kitchen . Bar of Duluth.
You don’t need a calculator to understand the math staring the Minnesota Duluth men's hockey team in the face. You need a miracle. And maybe a little chaos.
With two weekends left in the regular season, the Bulldogs sit fourth in the NCHC standings with 28 points through 20 conference games. On the surface, that’s good enough for home ice in the first round of the playoffs. But the truth is more complicated — and far less comfortable.
Each conference game is worth three points. Four league games remain for UMD. That means a maximum of 12 points available.
Here’s the pressure point: St. Cloud State also has 28 points — but the Huskies have already played 22 conference games. They have only two league games left, both at North Dakota this weekend. After that, they’re done.
Miami sits at 25 points with four games remaining. Colorado College is at 24 with four to play.
The top three — North Dakota (47), Denver (46) and Western Michigan (41) — are out of reach for UMD. Fourth is the target. Fourth is survival.
The schedule is straightforward.
UMD travels to Oxford this weekend for two conference games at Miami. Then it closes the regular season at home against Colorado College.
On paper, that’s manageable. Miami is dangerous but inconsistent. Colorado College has hovered around the .500 line all year.
But here’s the reality: UMD is 9-11-0 in conference play. The Bulldogs have scored 52 league goals and allowed 57. They’ve been good overall — 18-12-0 — but the NCHC has exposed their margins.
If UMD wins all four games in regulation, it finishes with 40 points. That guarantees home ice. No drama.
If the Bulldogs go 3-1 in regulation, they likely finish at 37 and still control their destiny. But if they split either weekend — especially if they give away points in overtime — the math tightens fast.
St. Cloud State can only reach 34 points even if it sweeps North Dakota in regulation. That’s important. UMD’s magic number over the Huskies is seven points.
Miami is the bigger threat. If the RedHawks sweep UMD this weekend in regulation, they jump ahead. If they split and take extra points in overtime or a shootout, they stay alive heading into the final weekend against Omaha.
Colorado College is the ultimate swing factor. The Tigers play Western Michigan this weekend before coming to Duluth. If CC stays within striking distance, that final series could become a de facto play-in for home ice.
Here’s the blunt assessment: the Bulldogs control their path, but they have very little cushion. The good news? They’re finishing against teams in the bottom half of the standings. The bad news? They’re on the road in a league that punishes lapses.
And remember the format. Three points for a regulation win. Two for overtime or shootout. One for an overtime or shootout loss. If you’re chasing home ice, regulation wins are gold. Overtime losses are silent killers.
So what’s the likelihood? If UMD earns eight or more points over the final four games, it should host a first-round series. That’s the practical threshold. Six points might be enough — but that would require help. Anything below that, and the Bulldogs are probably packing for the road.
This is not a dominant NCHC season for UMD. It’s been uneven. Productive at times. Leaky at others. But the opportunity is still there — not because they’ve been great, but because the middle of the league has been crowded and flawed.
Home ice in this conference matters. It means at least two games at Amsoil Arena instead of a hostile building in Grand Forks, Denver or Kalamazoo. It means control of matchups. It means one less flight. More than that, it means momentum.
The Bulldogs don’t need to be perfect. They just need to be disciplined, especially in regulation. Four games. Twelve possible points. No safety net. Fourth place is not guaranteed. But it’s right there — if they take it.
