The next NCHC race should begin where the last college hockey season ended, with Denver on top. It should not stay comfortable there.
Denver beat Wisconsin 2-1 in April to win its record 11th NCAA championship and third national title in five seasons. North Dakota won the Penrose Cup and reached the Frozen Four. Minnesota Duluth returns the country’s best player and most productive scoring line. Western Michigan brings back two 17-goal scorers from a 27-win team. Those are four credible national contenders before Miami, Colorado College and new member St. Thomas enter the discussion. Denver’s championship extended the NCHC’s national-title streak to three years, and the league placed four teams in the 2026 NCAA tournament.
The conference also has a different shape. St. Thomas officially became the NCHC’s 10th member July 1 after going 21-12-5 in its final CCHA season. Every team will qualify for the redesigned conference tournament, but a larger postseason field will not make the regular season more forgiving. The schedule opens Oct. 30, with St. Thomas making its league debut at Miami.
The NCHC has won eight national titles in 12 NCAA tournaments since conference play began.
This is a July forecast, not a final poll. NHL signings and late roster changes can still alter the order. But the league’s fault lines already are visible: Denver has the best incoming class, Minnesota Duluth the best returning offense, North Dakota the reigning conference goaltender of the year and Miami the most plausible path from the lower half to an NCAA tournament bid.
Projected finish
Place | Team | Preseason read
1 Denver – Favorite, but replacing an elite defense pair with a very young blue line.
2 Minnesota Duluth – Best returning scoring core; goaltending is the swing position.
3 North Dakota – Penrose contender again, with more youth and less veteran scoring.
4 Western Michigan – Still an NCAA team, though the losses are too large to ignore.
5 Miami – The league’s best bet to make a major move up.
6 Colorado College – A modest riser if its young forwards can finish.
7 St. Thomas – Good enough to compete immediately, not deep enough to contend yet.
8 St. Cloud State – The clearest step-back candidate after heavy roster and coaching turnover.
9 Arizona State – A talented portal rebuild with major questions in its own end.
10 Omaha – Young, intriguing and short on proven high-end production.
Denver
Denver’s strength is not simply talent. It is the program’s ability to lose NHL players and replace them without changing its standard. The Pioneers went 29-11-3 last season, allowed an NCHC-low 2.09 goals per game and received a combined 102 points from returning forwards Sam Harris, Clarke Caswell and James Reeder. Kyle Chyzowski also returns after scoring 13 goals. That is enough experienced offense to keep Denver from asking its freshmen to carry the team.
The newcomers are exceptional, especially on defense. Daxon Rudolph went No. 4 in the 2026 NHL draft, the highest selection in NCHC history, and Ryan Lin went No. 21. Blake Fiddler, a 2025 second-round selection, adds another potential top-four defenseman, while Mikey Berchild brings speed and scoring touch up front. The concern is that Denver lost 39-point defenseman Eric Pohlkamp and 29-point defenseman Boston Buckberger, along with goalie Quentin Miller. The crease is not a weakness: Johnny Hicks returns after going 16-0-1 with a 1.19 goals-against average and .957 save percentage, then backstopping the championship. Denver’s vulnerability is asking a very young blue line to replace two elite all-situations defensemen immediately.
Minnesota Duluth
No NCHC team returns a more intimidating group of forwards. Max Plante won the Hobey Baker Award after producing 25 goals and 52 points. Zam Plante had 20 goals and 51 points, while Jayson Shaugabay added 43 points. Together, they accounted for 146 points, and defenseman Ty Hanson contributed 36 more. Callum Arnott, Adam Kleber, Aaron Pionk and Brady Cleveland give the Bulldogs additional experience through the middle of the lineup and on defense. UMD also led the conference on both special teams at 29.6% on the power play and 88.8% on the penalty kill.
The new players strengthen an already deep offense. Barrett Hall arrives from St. Cloud State after a 28-point season, Peyton Platter had 21 points at Alaska and freshman Victor Plante joins brothers Max and Zam after recording 48 points with the U.S. under-18 team. The weakness is obvious: Adam Gajan is gone, and UMD does not have a proven full-season NCHC No. 1 in net. Cole Sheffield, Ethan Dahlmeir and freshmen Carl Axelsson give the Bulldogs options, but not certainty. The forecast is simple. Average goaltending makes UMD a Penrose contender; high-end goaltending makes it a national-title favorite. The Bulldogs scored 3.25 goals per game last season, and their returning personnel should push that number higher.
North Dakota
North Dakota has the league’s safest foundation because Jan Špunar returns in goal after winning NCHC goaltender of the year. The Fighting Hawks went 29-10-1, led the conference at 3.78 goals per game and won the Penrose Cup. Cole Reschny, the NCHC rookie of the year, had 35 points. Will Zellers scored 18 goals and had 34 points, while Mac Swanson and Jack Kernan supply more young scoring. Sophomore defenseman Keaton Verhoeff, the No. 9 pick in the NHL draft, gives the blue line a future NHL anchor.
The question is how quickly a reworked roster can replace an enormous veteran class. North Dakota lost Ellis Rickwood, Ben Strinden and Dylan James, who combined for 104 points, along with top defensemen Jake Livanavage and Abram Wiebe. The reinforcements are good: Bemidji State transfer Kasper Magnussen had 31 points, Colorado College transfer Gavin Lindberg had 21 and Providence transfer Hudson Malinoski scored 11 goals. Freshman defenseman Carson Carels went sixth in the NHL draft, and forward Cooper Simpson had 74 points in the USHL. That is enough to keep North Dakota in the top three. It is also enough turnover to make a small step back more likely than a repeat of last season’s regular-season dominance.
Western Michigan
Western Michigan remains dangerous because William Whitelaw and Zaccharya Wisdom return after scoring 19 and 17 goals, respectively. Ty Henricks had 25 points as a sophomore, Bobby Cowan had 24 as a freshman and Zack Sharp gives the defense a proven puck mover. The Broncos killed 86.2% of opposing power plays and allowed 2.44 goals per game, evidence that their identity was broader than one line or one goalie.
Still, the departures touch every important area. Grant Slukynsky had 40 points, Liam Valente scored 20 goals, Owen Michaels scored 13 and defenseman Samuel Sjolund had 29 points. Goalie Hampton Slukynsky also left after earning second-team All-NCHC recognition. Denver transfer Quentin Miller is an excellent answer in net after posting a 2.39 goals-against average and .916 save percentage, and Colgate transfer Michael Neumeier brings 23 points to the blue line. Those additions should prevent a collapse, but they do not fully replace the veteran scoring that left Kalamazoo. Western is still an NCAA-caliber team; it simply has less margin than the three teams above it.
Miami
Miami is the most compelling riser. The RedHawks finished 18-16-2 in Anthony Noreen’s first season, a significant turn for a program that had spent years near the bottom of the league. More important, most of the players who drove that progress return. Kocha Delic had 25 points, Matteo Giampa had 24, David Deputy scored 15 goals and Vladislav Lukashevich produced 21 points from the blue line. Ilia Morozov, the youngest player in college hockey last season, had 20 points before Buffalo selected him No. 20 in the NHL draft. Goalie Matteo Drobac finished 17-16-2 with a 2.69 goals-against average and .913 save percentage.
Miami’s weakness was the power play, which ranked last in the NCHC at 12.1%. The RedHawks also must replace defenseman Michael Quinn and find more secondary scoring. Bentley transfer David Helledy, a 20-point defenseman, should help, and freshman Timofei Runtso arrives after a 44-point WHL season and second-round NHL selection. If Morozov and Deputy make the expected sophomore jump and the power play becomes merely average, Miami can move from seventh to the top half and remain in the NCAA conversation into March.
Colorado College
Colorado College’s record, 13-17-6, hid a team that generated enough chances to be better. The Tigers averaged nearly 32 shots per game but converted only 8.3% of them. Their top returning scorers, Klavs Veinbergs and Owen Beckner, each had 23 points. Connor Hvidston, Brandon Lisowsky, Drew Montgomery, Bret Link and defenseman Fisher Scott provide a reasonable core, and the roster remains young enough for internal improvement.
The problem is that Colorado College still lacks a proven top-line finisher, and both special teams were costly. The Tigers’ power play finished at 13.8% and their penalty kill at 75.8%. Arizona State transfer Carmelo Crandell scored seven goals as a freshman, while newcomers Joby Baumuller, Zac Olsen and defenseman Will McLaughlin add drafted talent. The goaltending competition also is unsettled. Colorado College can climb a place or two if its shooting percentage normalizes and the freshmen contribute early, but the path to the top four requires a scorer the roster has not yet proved it possesses.
St. Thomas
St. Thomas will not enter the NCHC as a conventional expansion team. The Tommies won 21 games, finished second in the CCHA and played for the conference tournament championship. Lucas Van Vliet had 14 goals and 35 points as a freshman, Nathan Pilling scored 15 goals and Chase Cheslock produced 24 points from defense. Nick Williams, Charlie Schoen and Dylan Godbout give coach Rico Blasi additional veteran pieces, and the program now has a full season in its new 4,000-seat arena behind it.
The NCHC, however, will expose any thin spot. St. Thomas lost Alex Gaffney and Lucas Wahlin, who combined for 79 points, plus Ryan O’Neill and Jake Braccini. The Tommies also posted a .894 team save percentage against CCHA competition. Defensemen Justin Kipkie and Sam Groebner arrive through the portal, while drafted freshmen Ty Henry and Luken Huff add size and upside on the blue line. The Tommies are capable of beating anyone in a weekend series, but replacing four veteran forwards while making a dramatic jump in schedule strength points toward the lower middle of the standings. Fewer wins than last season would not necessarily mean regression.
St. Cloud State
No team faces a more difficult transition. St. Cloud State finished 16-19-1, then lost its three leading scorers: Tyson Gross had 41 points, Austin Burnevik had 38 and Barrett Hall had 28. The Huskies also lost defensemen Finn Loftus and Tanner Henricks and changed coaches, bringing former captain Nick Oliver back to replace Brett Larson. Gavyn Thoreson, who scored 11 goals, and Nolan Roed are the most established returning forwards, but neither has carried a top line for a full season.
The portal provides credible help. William Ahlrik had 27 points at Lake Superior State, Jake Southgate had 24 at Lindenwood and defenseman Jacob Napier had 11 at Colgate. That is useful production, but it does not equal the 107 points lost from the top three scorers. The Huskies also had a .898 team save percentage and a 77.2% penalty kill last season. Oliver may be the right long-term hirebu, t this roster looks more like the start of his build than a finished contender.
Arizona State
Arizona State responded to a 14-21-1 season with the league’s largest portal reconstruction. Union transfer Ben Muthersbaugh brings 19 goals and 36 points, Olivier Houde had 28 points at Lindenwood and defenseman Matthew Mayich had 15 at Clarkson. Cade Littler, Daniel Shlaine and Nic Chin-DeGraves add experienced forward depth. Returning players Kyle Smolen, Logan Morrell, Sean McGurn and Benjamin Kevan should be more effective in smaller roles than they were asked to fill last season.
The rebuild was necessary because the Sun Devils lost almost all of their established star power. Cruz Lucius had 46 points, Bennett Schimek had 43 and Cullen Potter had 26. Arizona State also allowed an NCHC-worst 3.67 goals per game. Samuel Urban posted a .904 save percentage, while Ohio State transfer Sam Hillebrandt arrives after a difficult freshman season. The power play, 22.9% last year, is a genuine strength, and the portal class has enough older scoring to make this projection look too low. But roster cohesion, even-strength defense and goaltending all must improve at once.
Omaha
Omaha has intriguing young players, but it enters the summer with the least proven top-end production in the league. Maxime Pellerin led last season’s team with 23 points, Luke Woodworth had 21 and Marcus Nguyen scored 11 goals. Samuel Huo and Brett Hyland also reached 16 points. The power play converted at 21.9%, a workable base for a team that struggled to score at five-on-five.
The weaknesses are more substantial. Omaha went 12-24, allowed 3.58 goals per game and killed only 75.4% of opposing power plays. The Mavericks lost additional experience and will lean on a large freshman class. North Dakota transfer Jayden Jubenvill adds an NCHC-ready defenseman, while Philadelphia draft pick Carter Sotheran, Gavin Hodnett and Ryden Evers bring major-junior experience. There is real developmental upside here, but too much of it is projection. Omaha can escape the bottom if its freshman defensemen mature quickly and the goaltending stabilizes; entering the season, those are requests rather than strengths.
The call
Denver is the narrow preseason choice because no other program combines this much returning offense, incoming NHL talent and proof that it can absorb elite departures. Minnesota Duluth is the best value to win the Penrose Cup because Max Plante, Zam Plante and Shaugabay give it a head start every night. North Dakota returns the conference goaltender of the year and enough young skill to win the league again, but it must replace more trusted minutes than UMD. Western Michigan should remain nationally relevant, though a repeat of 27 wins would be a larger achievement than it might appear.
Miami is ready to make the biggest move up. Colorado College is the quieter sleeper. St. Thomas should be competitive immediately, even if its record drops against a much harder schedule. St. Cloud State is the clearest candidate to fall, while Arizona State and Omaha are asking large incoming classes to solve problems that were already severe.
The NCHC will be deeper as a 10-team league. It will not be more forgiving. The champion still will need to survive Denver’s talent, UMD’s firepower, North Dakota’s goaltending and Western Michigan’s structure. That is why the safest preseason prediction is not simply that Denver will finish first. It is that the team picked first will spend five months looking over its shoulder.
